NEW YORK — Despite the conflict with Iran entering a tense phase, Wall Street's financial circles have yet to fall into a state of panic. According to many senior financial leaders, the market is fluctuating sharply but a broad sell-off has not yet occurred. The Dow Jones index has moved up and down session by session but has not plunged deeply. Instead of selling off, many institutional investors are choosing to hold their positions and buy selectively. A senior bank executive described the current situation as “binary”—meaning the scenario could be very positive or very negative. If the conflict escalates through air strikes on Iranian territory, causing significant casualties to U.S. forces abroad or lasting for weeks, oil prices could skyrocket, inflation could return, and the market could decline sharply. However, some executives believe that President Trump is pursuing specific goals, not setting excessive expectations. They believe Washington might accept a militarily and nuclear-weakened Iran instead of pursuing total regime change. Three positive scenarios investors are considering According to financial sources: First, energy supplies from Iran could return to the global market more transparently, contributing to lower oil prices and stable interest rates. Second, the Abraham Accords could expand to Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations, enhancing political and economic stability in the Middle East. Third, in a scenario with more moderate leadership in Tehran, Iran—a nation of nearly 93 million people with a highly skilled workforce—could reintegrate into the global economy. Nonetheless, analysts admit risks remain as Tehran could trigger a maximum chaos scenario and the market could reverse quickly if a sudden shock occurs. Currently, the general sentiment on Wall Street is cautious but not pessimistic. Investors are closely monitoring developments on the ground before making major decisions.

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