The University of Virginia (UVA) Center for Politics has released a series of new adjustments for the 2026 US House races, following changes to congressional districts, primary election results, and scandals involving incumbent lawmakers.

According to the new report, a total of 17 House seats have seen changes in their winnability ratings across the United States.

Florida has become the center of attention, with nine districts changing ratings after Governor Ron DeSantis signed a new electoral map into law that favors the Republican Party.

Notable changes include:

  • Representative Kathy Castor’s 14th district shifted from “Safe Democratic” to “Leans Republican.”

  • Representative Darren Soto’s 9th district moved from “Likely Democratic” to “Likely Republican.”

  • Districts 22 and 25 in Florida also shifted significantly toward the Republican Party.

Beyond Florida, major changes have occurred in several other states:

  • Representative Marcy Kaptur’s 9th district in Ohio moved from “Leans Republican” to “Toss-up.”

  • Representative Max Miller’s 7th district saw its safety rating downgraded following a high-profile divorce and custody dispute.

  • Representative Chuck Edwards’ 11th district in North Carolina shifted from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican” following allegations of sexual misconduct and an ethics investigation.

  • The open seat in Texas's 23rd district, previously held by former Representative Tony Gonzales, also saw a decrease in its safety rating for the Republican Party.

On the other hand, several districts in Michigan and Indiana are now rated more favorably for the Democratic Party.

According to the updated statistics from the UVA Center for Politics:

  • 213 districts currently lean toward or are safe for the Democratic Party.

  • 207 districts lean toward or are safe for the Republican Party.

  • 15 districts are classified as “Toss-ups”—meaning they are extremely close and difficult to predict.

These changes come as President Trump continues to urge Republican-controlled states to redraw their electoral maps to increase the GOP's advantage ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.