Coordinated airstrikes by the U.S. and Israel targeting Iran are putting significant pressure on global oil markets, carrying the risk of driving gas prices in California even higher than their already expensive levels.
The average price for a gallon of regular gasoline in California reached $4.643 as of Saturday, up from $4.610 last week and $4.260 a month ago, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA). Meanwhile, the national average sits at approximately $2.98 per gallon.
Analysts predict the market will remain stable over the weekend, but sharp volatility could emerge next week if Middle East oil supplies are disrupted. Brent crude hit a seven-month high, closing at $72.87 per barrel on Friday.
Clayton Seigle, an expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), noted that an expanded conflict could push crude oil prices above $90 per barrel, driving U.S. gas prices over $3 per gallon. Rystad Energy warned that even limited attacks on nuclear facilities or the Iranian Revolutionary Guard could add $5–$10 per barrel to oil prices due to market sentiment.
Iran exports about 1.6 million barrels of oil per day, mostly to China due to U.S. sanctions limiting other markets. Any disruption to infrastructure or oil shipping routes would have a ripple effect.
In California, the risk of price hikes is even greater due to the recent closure of several refineries within the state, which has reduced domestic supply and increased reliance on imports. Governor Gavin Newsom stated that the market began reacting immediately following the strikes.
Gas prices in the state have largely remained below the $5 per gallon mark for nearly two years. Developments next week will depend on the level of escalation and the potential for disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies.
