WASHINGTON – A new analysis from energy research firm S&P Global suggests that the global oil market could take at least seven months to fully recover once the Strait of Hormuz resumes operations.
This means that gas prices in the U.S. are likely to remain high until the midterm elections later this year, regardless of when the conflict with Iran concludes.
The report states that oil shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is currently almost at a total standstill. This maritime route controls approximately 20% of the world's oil supply.
According to S&P, the seven-month recovery scenario is only possible if Middle Eastern energy infrastructure has not sustained serious damage and supply chains quickly return to normal.
However, recent attacks on oil and gas facilities in the UAE, combined with prolonged tensions, continue to heighten the risk of an energy crisis.
Meanwhile, oil prices remain above $100 per barrel. According to AAA, the average gas price in the U.S. is currently around $4.48 per gallon—an increase of approximately 50% since the outbreak of hostilities in late February.
Iran is also reportedly seeking to implement a toll system for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, similar to Egypt's Suez Canal model, causing further concern for the global energy market.
