Goal to Improve Approval Ratings
President Trump enters this year's State of the Union with a clear goal: to improve his declining approval ratings and protect the Republican Party's narrow majority in Congress. However, the tense atmosphere in the chamber, coupled with recent Supreme Court rulings, could expose his speech to significant political risks.
Trump stated the speech would be "very long" as there's "a lot to talk about," after last year's address lasted almost 1 hour and 40 minutes. The focus is expected to be on the economy and cost of living — issues that many Republican strategists believe should be prioritized to reassure voters in contested areas.
Economy as the Main Message
President Trump will likely emphasize: inflation dropping to 2.4% according to the CPI, declining gas prices and mortgage costs, record-breaking stock market performance, and new tax refunds for seniors, overtime workers, and tipped employees.
Some Republican advisors have warned him to focus on the message of "affordability and job creation," avoiding getting bogged down in disputes with the Supreme Court over tariffs.
According to RealClearPolitics, Trump's disapproval rating currently stands at 55.8%, an increase of over 11 points since he returned to office. Significant shifts have been observed among Latino voters and the 35–49 age group, according to CNN surveys.
Tension with the Supreme Court
The State of the Union takes place just days after the Supreme Court issued a 6–3 ruling rejecting some of Trump's tariff policies. President Trump has openly criticized the justices who voted against him.
With the justices seated in the front row of the chamber, observers will be keen to see how Trump conducts himself upon entering the House of Representatives.
Risk of Interruption
Analysts predict potential protests from Democrats. Some members of Congress have announced they will not attend. In recent State of the Union addresses, interrupting the president has become more common than in the past.
Last year, Representative Al Green (D-Texas) was escorted out of the chamber after repeated interruptions. The question remains: will President Trump ignore the heckling or respond directly?
Midterm Challenge
The Republican Party currently holds a narrow majority in the House of Representatives. Internal tensions persist, while some recent special elections have shown an unfavorable trend for the GOP.
A Republican strategist commented that the speech needs to send a clear message: "This is the plan to keep the country on the right track."
As the perceived central candidate for the next election cycle, President Trump remains the most attention-grabbing figure in American politics. How he handles this year's address could shape the political climate ahead of the midterm elections.
