SAN FRANCISCO — A new study shows that the city could take up to 124 years to solve its housing crisis, even with the aggressive implementation of pro-housing policies under the YIMBY (Yes In My Backyard) movement. According to the report, even in an optimistic scenario where housing supply increases by 1.5% annually — significantly higher than current rates — it would take at least 18 years for a one-bedroom apartment to become "affordable" for a median-income worker without a college degree. The authors suggest that focusing solely on increasing market-rate supply is unlikely to bring about widespread affordability within a meaningful timeframe. The YIMBY movement, which promotes easing zoning regulations and cutting red tape, has long argued that increased construction is the key to solving the crisis. However, the new study questions the effectiveness of this approach, especially as down payment assistance programs in California have yet to fully address the challenge of homeownership for the masses. According to the research team, the core issue lies not just in supply but also in the widening income gap. The tech wave has drawn a large number of high-income workers to the San Francisco Bay Area, creating competitive pressure on low-income groups, making debates over tax and budget policies in San Francisco a constant focus for local officials. Census data shows that the median household income in San Francisco County nearly doubled from $69,354 in 2011 to $137,184 in 2024. Meanwhile, Los Angeles County — which is also facing a rising homelessness crisis and an expensive housing market — saw an increase from $52,239 to $90,757 during the same period. Some real estate developers argue that the biggest hurdle currently is construction costs. “No one is breaking ground until costs come down,” one developer shared. San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie recently pushed for the modernization of the building permit system, launching the PermitSF platform to digitize the process and reduce processing times. This move comes as public trust wavers following a multi-million dollar fraud case involving a former director of a local social support organization. The study was conducted by scientists from UC Berkeley, UCLA, Georgia Institute of Technology, and the University of Toronto.

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