After a harsh winter, March brings gradually warming air to many areas of the United States. However, the change of seasons also carries the risk of widespread severe weather in the Southern and Central US.
🌩 Key Developments
Starting Tuesday evening (March 3), an upper-level disturbance moving through the Desert Southwest and the Rockies will trigger scattered thunderstorms in the Mississippi River Valley.
The Storm Prediction Center (NOAA) has issued a level 1/5 warning for Tuesday, with large hail being the primary threat.
By Wednesday (March 4), warm and moist air from East Texas will spread into Arkansas and Louisiana, creating conditions for severe thunderstorms from Central Oklahoma to South Missouri.
Forecast models show sufficient atmospheric energy to form supercells—a dangerous type of thunderstorm capable of producing tornadoes.
NOAA has upgraded the risk to level 2/5 for Wednesday, including all forms of extreme weather:
- Large hail
- Strong wind gusts
- Tornado risks
Since 2010, more than 1,700 tornadoes have been recorded in the US during the month of March.
⛈ From Thursday Through the Weekend
The storm system will continue to affect the Central and Southern Plains through the end of the week.
- Thursday: Thunderstorms will persist along a cold front moving through Arkansas, Louisiana, and Texas.
- Friday: Moist air will become more unstable, and the jet stream strengthening from the Northeast will help organize severe thunderstorms.
- Saturday: A larger upper-level trough will form in the Western US, maintaining unstable conditions.
The highest risk area extends from Central Texas to the Lower Missouri Valley, including:
- 📍 Dallas
- 📍 Oklahoma City
- 📍 Kansas City
Primary risks include:
- Large hail
- Damaging wind gusts
- A few tornadoes could appear if the thunderstorms become well-organized
⚠ Early Warning
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Day 6 severe weather outlook, covering an area from North-Central Texas to Arkansas and Louisiana.
Residents in Southern and Central states are advised to:
- Monitor weather warnings continuously
- Prepare shelter plans for tornado warnings
- Be ready for power outages and strong winds
Developments will continue to be updated.
